Finding the WAVE 3 Peak Target

PROCEDURES:

  1. Take the 161.8% of the Wave 1 . Use the candle’s body, don’t include the wick.
  2. Draw and arrow from 0.00% to 161.8%.
  3. Clone the arrow. Move the bottom of the cloned arrow to the bottom/support of Wave 2 consolidation box. The bottom must be the body of the lowest candle, don’t include the wick.
  4. The top of the cloned arrow is the Target for the Wave 3 Peak.

OBSERVATIONS:

  1. The FIRST PUSH usually ignores the BB50/50MA. It’s during the SECOND PUSH and onwards where BB50/50MA will get respected by price as bounce point for support before or after breaking out from 61.8% Fibonacci.
  2. Clone arrows as target for WAVE 3 Peaks are more accurate than Fibonacci Extension levels like 261.8%, 361.8%,etc.
  3. The younger the PUSH, the shorter it’s consolidation period inside WAVE 2. As the PUSH gets older , the longer its consolidation period.
    FIRST PUSH Wave 2 consolidation: 30 trading days
    SECOND PUSH Wave 2 consolidation: 90 trading days
    THIRD PUSH Wave 2 consolidation: 6 months to a year
  4. There’s usually THREE PUSHES before the patterns get destroyed and become complicated.

SAMPLE : IDC

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FIRST PUSH : MARCH 2016
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SECOND PUSH : JUNE 2016
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THIRD PUSH : OCTOBER 2017

SAMPLE : VITA

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FIRST PUSH : MARCH 2016
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SECOND PUSH : APRIL 2016
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THIRD PUSH : JULY 2016
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ISM – IDC Fractal (December 2018)

Saw this possible fractal of ISM from IDC chart that happened last July 2016.

ISM is currently completing it’s Wave 4 and is about to start the Wave 5 leg if the IDC fractal is to be followed.

The Wave 5 peak target is the 161.8% Fibonacci level of Wave 4.

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BSC – DAVIN Fractal (May 2017)

Upon  scanning stocks with similar set-ups like BSC, PA, and RLT and comparing them to stocks that recently made its great rallies, I stumbled upon DAVIN and realized that it has a very familiar similarity with BSC’s current chart. See below.

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DAVIN Fractal – BSC current chart May 5,2017
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DAVIN Parabolic – Q1 2016

UPDATE: 

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Failed Breakout

Both the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci Level were successfully broken. As a rule, the golden ratio 61.8% should have a re-test first before continuing to go up, unless it’s a very strong breakout where it doesn’t need a re-test anymore.

After reaching 88.6%, the anticipated re-test of 61.8% is about to happen during this time but instead of staying above the level, it goes down even more and now finding hard to get back up above the level to create a support. Thus, proving that 61.8% is strong resistance level instead of a support since the bulls cannot re-take the level from the bears.

This is already a signal that a failed breakout has happened and that it might go downward to sideways from here on until it will attempt to breakout from the level again.

2GO Script

Credits to Robot From AlphaCentauri for first noticing this movement of $2GO everytime it make its huge move reaching new All Time Highs. I just updated it to fit my own preference using MACD ,Stochastics and RSI. Why that many? Well, I just want to show how those indicators look like during the big move.

Basically there are four stages:

  1. New All-Time High (Parabolic Movement) the drop
  2. Consolidation
  3. Breakout from Consolidation
  4. Uptrend

2GO Parabolic Stages

IMPORTANT NOTE:
1. If BOX 2 stays at 23.6 to 38.1 Fib ratios,which are bullish fib levels,then expect it to consolidate at a short period only before continuing its uptrend achieving parabolic.

2. If BOX 2 goes below the 38.1 Fib ratio, which is already considered as neutral to bearish levels, then expect a very long consolidation period. 

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Latest chart of 2GO – April28,2017

Chart above is a bigger view of this study. Currenty we are inside the Bluebox inside another bigger Bluebox. Things gets complicated from here,I got confused upon updating the chart to the current,too. It seems like plotting Elliot Wave where there are sub-waves within the bigger primary waves.

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Closer view of the current chart – April 28,2017

Box 2 was held at 38.2% Fib level, that’s why it doesn’t took a long time for a breakout from consolidation to happen. From the chart above, what we are waiting now to unfold is the “uptrend”.

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Latest chart – May 5,2017

As you see, at the closing of the market, our green Box 4 for uptrend was already filled-up as we expected. Thus proving our waiting to be worthy.

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I made +20% gain from that 4 days hold when I bought at May 2 candle. The last candle on May 5, where I sold my shares,was an asspak/needle which shows a price rejection at 261.8% Fib level.

LIHC – DAVIN Fractal

I really wondered why people are so bullish about LIHC these days. Are they seeing something that I don’t? LIHC is well known to be one of the JAP stocks,and to be honest, I really hate trading such kind of stock for House Angping is very notorious in its jockeying activity. If one wants to trade them, one must give it a very special attention.

It was until I heard people talking relating LIHC to the great DAVIN run. I tried comparing DAVIN’s daily chart of early 2016 to LIHC’s current weekly chart…and boy do they look so much the same!

Both retraced at FIB 78.60% after their first run. DAVIN, after the bounce, consolidated at 61.8% for 8-9days before breaking out from the box. And the rest is history.

LIHC is currently consolidating at the same spot at 61.8% but on weekly. Mind the similarities of the MACD and RSI too!

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DAVIN reached the Fibonacci extension of 361.8%. If that kind of move is to be followed,then we might as well set 361.8% as our target.

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UPDATE:

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Failed Fractal

5Minute Charts Divergences 3-12-2017

Divergences in 5-minute charts of some popular stocks – March 12,2017

BEARISH DIVERGENCES:

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MAC 5MIN Bearish Divergence 3-12-2017

2017-03-13_000002NOW 5MIN Bearish Divergence 3-12-2017


 

BULLISH DIVERGENCES:

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BLOOM 5MIN Hidden Bullish Divergence 3-12-2017

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TUGS 5MIN Bullish Divergence 3-12-2017

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MRC 5MIN Hidden Bullish Divergence 3-12-2017

 

Learnings from a failed trade

Dammmmmmmnn!!

I lost some amounts again today for trading 2 stocks that I’ve had given a good amount of time last weekend in planning how to trade it.

It is PMPC and LMG this time around. Both are,I believe, following the DNA of ALCO. And so, I used the said stock as their fractal. I traced the movement of the base of ALCO using the Wycoff method. Determining their 1-7 legs before its monstrous parabolic run.

Lots for learning and realization from those failed trades today.

  1. I should have bought at the support of their trendlines. Duh,basic! But I’m stupid.

    Because of FOMO, I bought at higher prices,clinging to hope that it would rally much farther and it won’t go back to my average entry price. Both indeed rallied in the morning but came down right after. IPIT. Sold them at a loss. And I also forgot to make it a priority of watching the INTRADAY charts closely.

  2. Treat every stock I enter as a daytrade-only and watch them closely using INTRADAY chart. Never buy without opening the intraday chart.

    That if I bought them at close the prior day or on the open today, I would sell them if they brokedown from my EMAs using INTRADAY chart! If it doesn’t go down until closing,I’ll hold it the next day and use the high of today as trailstop. If it survived the rally on the first day then I’ll treat it as a good entry for my Trend-Following. But if it goes down instead, I’ll SELL ALL SHARES. No ifs and buts. SELL THEM ALL!!!

  3. Use GTC to buy the target stock at the price of the support/below of the DARVAS box.

    Don’t buy the current price. Don’t rush and please be verrrrryyy patient, meself. Accumulate at the support when the stock is silent. And never chase a flying stock. Should you chase a fast moving one, apply Ceiling Play and INTRADAY trading rules. SELL THEM ALL if it break the EMAs.

  4. BELIEVE IN YOUR GUT FEEL! 

    Should you feel that a no-activity stock at the opening is likely to rally,BUY IT RIGHT AWAY!! Don’t give time to think about it cause you already did so last night during your planning! Follow your plan! Don’t freeze out and overthink! Buy it! Buy it! You’ll sell it anyway if goes down, but if it rallies then consider yourself lucky for buying it first before anyone else.
    -PMPC experience during the open today (February 27,2017)

  5. Use INTRADAY charts to BUY using the breakout theory of the EMAs,RSI and DARVAS BOXES!
  6. Always plot DARVAS BOX after buying!
  7. Give attention to the  INTRADAY charts after buying for a possible breakdown.
     
  8. Use INTRADAY charts to SELL a stock that brokedown from EMAs and DARVAS only!
  9. INTRADAY charts!
  10. INTRADAY charts!
  11. INTRADAY charts!